[Tfug] [Bulk] Re: Stallman vs Ubuntu

Fri Dec 14 17:50:57 MST 2012

This is an example of how companies use the data they collect

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2012/02/16/how-target-figured-out-a-teen-girl-was-pregnant-before-her-father-did/

I worked for an HMO about 15 years ago.  I built a model that determined the risk of the groups that were utilizing under the different plans.  This info was used by underwriting and sales and service to set pricing.  

All I needed was their purchase info and I could have built a predictive utilization model  based on actuarial numbers.  If I could have obtained their driving info from the black boxes, now being installed in some new cars, I could have assessed their risk here as well.

You eat too many burgers.... you became a higher risk.  All the data is out there today.  Most of us use our credit or debit card for every purchase.

This stuff is not rocket science. Almost anyone can create one of these models.

------------------------

Keith Smith

--- On Fri, 12/14/12, Bexley Hall <bexley401 at yahoo.com> wrote:

From: Bexley Hall <bexley401 at yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [Tfug] [Bulk] Re:  Stallman vs Ubuntu
To: "Tucson Free Unix Group" <tfug at tfug.org>
Date: Friday, December 14, 2012, 3:58 PM

Hi Mike,

On 12/14/2012 2:53 PM, mike wrote:
> And well then I was going to write this huge piece but here is the short
> version. I use Firefox and Google search.( So I get tracked) I buy my
> tech needs on line I buy a lot of my pet supplies on line I even buy
> household items and personal items on line.
> 
> We need the R.S.'s of the world to remind me of what is important, but
> in this case I am using my freedom to use Ubuntu. I get paid and why
> should the developers of Ubuntu not get paid. I this case I might use
> the function that is under question. If I did not want this I could use
> another distro or turn off this feature and in fact I am using another
> distro right now, choice is a good thing. And well I don't use Ubuntu as
> the goto new person distro that is Mint. So this changes my world not a
> bit and I for one think it is OK for Ubuntu to run how ever its creators
> see fit. Just my 2 cents worth.

My apologies for not taking the time to identify the original source,
but there's a quote to the effect of:

"Any time you get something for free, *you* are the product being SOLD!"

I tend to like cleaner transactions with "vendors" with whom I interact.
It is much easier for me to decide if X is worth $Y than for me to
*wonder* what some other, less obvious, transactions are "worth".  I
think many people are unable to evaluate the consequences of their
blithely "giving away" information that they *think* is unimportant.

Remember, actuarial science deals with laws of large numbers.  The
fact that you listen to a particular style of music, watch certain
types of programs, buy certain medicines/healthcare products, etc.
might *seem* innocuous.  But, people with access to *all* that
data can see patterns and deduce things that you might not be
comfortable having "known" -- especially by nameless entities along
with others with *financial* (i.e., dubious morality) interests.

Would you like to find yourself placed in a higher risk category
(insurance, etc.) simply because someone has found a STATISTICALLY
SIGNIFICANT (you can put real *numbers* on these correlations!)
correlation between folks who buy blueberries, listen to Johnny
Cash and go to church 2.3 times monthly?

I'm facing the same philosophical issue with the automation system
I've been designing, here.  What can someone learn about me/us if
they know where I am in the house at any given time, what "services"
I call on while in that location, what time I wake/retire, how often
I do laundry, etc.?

In the 70's, 60 minutes (or some similar program) did a piece on
this sort of thing -- from a very LOW TECH perspective.  In it,
they took the canceled checks from a family (with their consent)
for a 12 month period.  They gave these to a PI with instructions
NOT to contact (or surveil) the family NOR engage in any illegal
activities.  [Remember, this predates the PC, populist Internet,
google, Intellious, etc.]  They gave him (?) 30 days to find out
everything he could about the family, "blind" (using just the
canceled checks).

Meanwhile (to make for "good TV"), they returned to the family
and showed footage of them living their lives.  It was obvious
that the mom was pregnant, that they had a couple of large dogs,
N children, the sort of vehicle(s) they drove, the way they dressed,
etc.

Then, they returned to the PI -- presumably 30 days later -- and
had *him* describe the family.  He hit on all these points with a
high degree of confidence.  And, when pressed as to *how* he came to
his conclusions he was able to explain them logically:
   "How do you know they have two *big* dogs?"
   "Well, they buy X pounds of dog food every Y weeks.  Too much for
   one HUGE dog.  And, unlikely that they would have 3 or 4 medium
   size dogs.  So, 2 large dogs seems most likely."

   "How do you know the wife is pregnant?"
   "How do you know they drive an older car?"
   "How..."
etc.  Remember, he is just looking at canceled checks:  date issued
(but NOT time -- modern transactions have more information), amount
and payee.

We watched this episode in class.  Then, the professor gave us
*his* credit card statements from the preceding summer and asked
us to describe how his family had spent their summer.  (Again,
this predates the ability to do online interactive research.
If you want to know what's in Los Angeles, you have to manually
dig through books, travel literature, etc.)  And, we only had
a week to do it!  And don't have the AUTOMATED resources that
dataminers have, nowadays!

[There's a reason I use different email accounts for different
purposes, *don't* use gmail, etc.  No, I'm not trying to be
anonymous.  But, I surely don't want to make it easy for
nameless entities to eek out more information than I would
want them to have.]

<shrug>  Returning to the quote (above), I guess I figure, as
a "product", *I* am worth far more than the value of the "free"
services that I use.  If I want to subsidize the Ubuntu folks,
I'll send them a check or some bug-fixes.

YMMV.
--don

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