[Tfug] Smoke detectors for the deaf > Developing apps for the Linux desktop.

[Jesse Allen]

My objection to this line of thought is that it looks at the OS market
in isolation. There seem to have been three major roadblocks to seeing a
linux distro gain marketshare on the desktop:

1) Ease of use (including most `driver problems') -- for much of the
history of linux, the learning curve has been prohibitively steep. It
has only been in the last couple of years that distributions have
become easy enough for the ``average'' user to run, let alone install
linux. I would argue that this issue is no longer a roadblock, even if
there is still much work to be done.

2) Proprietary software -- many linux evangelists would consider it
blasphemous to invite closed source software into the community, but for
a lot of people, the open alternatives are just not viable. I haven't
found too many situations where the open alternative doesn't work for
me, but it is bound to happen as more people start using linux. If
vendors were to start taking advantage of the work that has been done
with package management in order to distribute or at least update their
software, we may see this roadblock fade away.

3) OEM -- most of the major computer vendors are tied up in contracts
with Microsoft which hinder their ability to offer alternatives to
Windows. Some vendors have been prevented from passing the cost savings
of linux to customers or advertising linux as an option. Most ``average
users'' do not ever install an operating system: what comes with the box
stays on the box. The problem here is a business problem, not a
technical problem. With proper branding, aggressive contracts with
vendors, and continued exposure, I think linux has a good chance of
gaining rapidly in the next few years. We are already seeing this start
to happen more as vendors like Dell and Asus offer linux machines.

I wouldn't give up on linux just yet.

- Jesse Allen

On Fri, Dec 05, 2008 at 05:36:15AM -0700, Bowie J. Poag wrote:
> It should be pretty obvious by now that Linux on the desktop is dead.  
> It's had 10+ years now to take root, grow, stabilize, and be truly  
> competitive...and it simply hasn't.  Even worse, the whopping 0.83% of  
> Linux's "world domination" marketshare is fragmented among more than one  
> desktop. No mainstream software developer in their right mind is going  
> to line up manpower and capital to develop for a target audience that  
> small, and even worse, that target audience is generally adverse to  
> spending money on software. You'd be better off getting out of the  
> software business and starting a company that makes smoke detectors for  
> the deaf at that point. 0.8% of the public > 0.8% of the public that use  
> a desktop computer regularly.